A gestão de riscos na obtenção de submarinos convencionais (S-BR)

Abstract

The Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK®) guide is one of the main references of good practice in project management. Risk management is one of the areas of knowledge contained in that guide. Furthermore the Submarine Development Program (Programa de Desenvolvimento de Submarinos - PROSUB) is one of the major projects on the national scene due not only to its strategic value to the country but also to the high numbers involved therein. Within this scenario, this paper aims to analyze risk management in the conventional submarines procurement project (S-BR) in light of the risk management practices contained in the PMBOK®. To accomplish this goal we have reviewed the main concepts of risk, revised PMBOK® structure and concepts concerning risk management, and finally compared and examined the conformity between the practices actually carried out and those recommended in the guide in reference. As part of the methodology employed in this paperwork we have consulted documents in the Coordinator-General Office for the Nuclear Propulsion Submarine Development Program (Coordenadoria Geral do Programa de Desenvolvimento de Submarino com Propulsão Nuclear - COGESN). We have interviewed a professional in this area as well. Our analysis has allowed us to conclude that the risk management processes carried out by the COGESN with respect to obtaining S-BR’s are in line with those recommended in the PMBOK®. Furthermore it can be inferred that this alignment is in a 70% order of magnitude. With regard to improvement of the practices currently implemented, we suggest the deployment of a team exclusively dedicated to the management of risks, the adoption of specific software for risk management, benchmarking conduction, and permanent investment in the risk management staff training. Specifically regarding each of the six processes comprising risk management, we suggested that the following actions be developed to increase consistency between the COGESN practice and the PMBOK® contents: promote the use of a number of tools as high as possible in the process of Identification and of Qualitative Risk Analysis, which may entail the detection of opportunities for the organization, and start execution of Quantitative Risk Analysis, which is not currently in course. These actions will also reflect on the processes of Response Planning and of Monitoring and Control and will thus increase their conformity therewith.