A geopolítica do petróleo: a nova perspectiva brasileira e seus reflexos para a Marinha do Brasil

Abstract

The twenty-first century globalized world is charac terized by an exponential growth of transnational trade and economic and financial inte rdependence, in which energy inputs, mainly oil, assume capital importance within the in ternational order. Thus, the geopolitical scenario is characterized by a race for resources a mong consumer countries on the basis of the inevitable depletion of oil reserves. The ancient r eligious, ethnic and cultural antagonism, amplified by national borders artificially establis hed by European Powers, intensifies the likelihood of conflicts in major producing regions, the Middle East and Central Asia, which has contributed to establish a supranational consci ousness regarding the importance of developing renewable energy sources to enhance ener gy security and environmental sustainability. In Brazil, the first oil discovery occurred in 1939, in Lobato, state of Bahia. The establishment of the state monopoly and the cre ation of Petrobras, in 1953, ended the heated debate about the model for oil exploration t o be adopted in the country. Throughout the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s the production frontier was expanded to the continental shelf, turning Bacia de Campos into the main oil region of the country, which enabled the achievement of national self-sufficiency since 2006 . Government’s inability to ensure the necessary investments for expansion of offshore oil production led to changes in the national regulatory framework, in 1997, ending more than fou r decades of state monopoly. Currently, the country has a high level of energy security due to the diversity of its energy sources as well as to the minimization of the strategic vulner ability associated with its historical dependence on foreign oil. In 2007, the discovery o f large reserves in the pre-salt province that encompasses Espírito Santo, Campos and Santos basins has significantly altered the perspective of Brazil’s participation in world oil production. However, the exploitation of these reserves poses unprecedented challenges for t he domestic oil industry due to its location at great distances from the coast, in deep waters a nd under a layer of salt up to 2 km thick. To these difficulties should be added those arising fr om the recruitment and training of manpower, large amounts of investments and uncertai nties regarding the new regulatory framework, currently under discussion in Congress. With the beginning of oil exploration in the pre-salt province, Brazil will become a major o il exporter with significant impacts on National Power. To quantify these impacts, experts from academia, business and government were consulted. In identifying possible consequence s for the Navy, the same methodology was applied, by consulting Officers within the rank s of Vice Admiral, Rear Admiral and Captain.