Escassez no meio da abundância: os impactos dos cenários de escassez de água para o Brasil

Abstract

Brazil is the holder of the largest water availability in the world, having the shared resource with several countries in South America. The overall objective of the research is to analyze whether the water shortage scenarios displayed in Brazil, until 2030, can demand securitize actions by the Brazilian State. It considered as hypothesis that the scenarios studied predict situations that will demand securitize actions by Brazil. The methodology employed is inductive; the procedurefor analysis is monograph. Thus, the water shortage scenarios wereexaminedto South America and the possible causal factors that can unleash them. The theoretical framework is the securitization theory, as exposed by the authors of the Copenhagen School, the securitization of water issues can occur due to the politicization of environmental issues, in which water is the object and its scarcity can pose a threat to any population. The results found in this study indicate the need for review of agreements, treaties and their ratification by Brazil, regarding the correct use of shared water with the other countries in South America. The theme will be able to achieve the level of securitization, since the water shortage scenarios indicate that the region of South America, until then regarded as peaceful, could have an increase of tensions and even conflicts over the use, possession and control of water. This work aims to contribute to the discussions in the theoretical field of strategic security studies; defense and strategy around the natural resource water, and contribute to the Brazilian strategic thinking. This dissertation consists of seven chapters, including the introduction and conclusion. The second chapter deals with the theory of securitization, exposing its relation with the theme of this research. The third chapter discusses legal aspect, agreements and treaties that Brazil has with countries neighboring waters. The fourth chapter analyzes the water scarcity scenarios and reports, with the delimitation of South America. In the fifth chapter, interviews were conducted with water policy experts, environmental security, and analyst of security and defense in South America. In the sixth chapter will present the analysis and discussion of the results. In conclusion, the results are presented in order to answer the problem of thisresearch.