O uso de cenários prospectivos no planejamento estratégico: impactos para o Sistema de Abastecimento da Marinha

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to analyze if the use of prospective scenarios could produce positive impacts in the Navy Supply System if it employed by the Navy Supply Directorate in the elaboration of its strategic planning. The justification lies precisely in the contribution of the work to an increase in the proficiency of that Supply System, with the consequent positive reflexes in the readiness of the operating means and in the rationalization of resources. For this, the methodology employed included a descriptive documentary research, with indirect techniques and consisting of a qualitative approach, a field research with experts from the Navy Supply Department, through structured interviews, and a review of the literature on the subject. Initially, concepts of strategy, strategic planning, organizational learning and knowledge management are investigated. Subsequently, concepts related to prospective scenarios and some of the main methods and techniques for elaborating scenarios are presented. Next, the concepts on Logistics employed in the Brazilian Navy, such as its Logistics Support System, the Navy Supply System and its universe of operations, the technical and managerial activities of Supply and the competencies of the Navy Supply Directorate within that System are discussed. The aim is to analyze the need for long-term planning with a prospective approach to that System. Subsequently, its contribution to the operational readiness of the Brazilian Navy is expressed. As a result, the impacts of the use of prospective scenarios in the strategic planning of the Navy Supply Directorate and, consequently, in the Navy Supply System are identified