Ameaças híbridas e a segurança marítima do Século XXI

Abstract

This dissertation aims to discuss the applicability of the Multination Capability Development Campaign (MCDC) countering hybrid warfare framework for dealing with maritime hybrid threats. Such threats are defined as a combination of a wide range of non-violent means to target vulnerabilities across the whole of society, to undermine the functioning, cohesion, or will of their targets. An increase in maritime awareness in Brazil, associated with the discoveries of large oil and gas reserves at sea, the growth of foreign trade, and the marine environment stress consequently demand the strengthening of security conditions. Thus, aware of the existence of gaps in understanding and fighting those threats, is evident the need to investigate this problem. Therefore, we conducted a bibliographic review followed by a field survey, which included the distribution of electronic questionnaires answered by agents who work to combat threats at sea and with semi-structured interviews with authorities who participated in the response to the environmental crime of pollution that contaminated hundreds of Brazilian beaches in 2019. The analysis was enriched with aspects of complexity theory, brought from the Russian understanding of the phenomenon of hybrid warfare and the reflections obtained in the data analysis. We conclude that the MCDC countering hybrid warfare framework is suitable to be used for the benefit of Brazilian maritime security. Furthermore, we identified limitations regarding the need to include the affective dimension present in human interactions, which is explored by hybrid warfare operators. In this way, it presents recommendations to improve the institutional capacity to face hybrid threats as the strengthen of civil affairs capability, the review of the military leader’s education and training programs, plus the need to deepen studies regarding those matters