Exploração de hidrocarbonetos no mar, um novo obstáculo à paz definitiva entre Líbano e Israel: novos desafios à MTF-UNIFIL

Abstract

This monograph discusses the discovery and consequent exploitation of hydrocarbons in the Economically Exclusive Zone of Lebanon as a threat to stability in the region, where Brazil holds the Command of a Maritime Task Force under the aegis of the UN. This study aims to analyze the possible impacts on the operational maneuver of the MTF and to present possible subsidies to mitigate the negative effects of the new operating environment, based on the diagnosis of the various elements that compose the current scenario and the formulation of prospective scenarios. The methodology adopted included a bibliographical and documentary research, aiming to search for theoretical references, besides the author's experience as Commander of the Captain's Ship and Chief of Staff of the MTF. In order to prospect future scenariuns it was used the Superior War College’s Estrategic Planning Metodology. The field of study was limited to addressing the main regional historical and geopolitical elements, in the scope and depth needed for the proper understanding of the MTF-UNIFIL performance scenario. The reporting of the formation of the states involved took place in the time window between the middle of the 20th century and the present day. The description of the operation of the MTF was limited to the elements that draft the limits of its operation within the current mandate of UNIFIL, without delving into technical- operational details. The legal analysis was limited to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the treaties and agreements signed by the three countries bordering on the maritime region in dispute: Lebanon, Israel and Cyprus. The conclusion indicates that there is no prospect that the exploitation of hydrocarbon reserves could impede or cause a significant impact on the continuity of the Brazilian participation in MTF-UNIFIL provided that: the Brazilian State elaborates its caveats for the new scenario; the MTF improves the planning resulting from UNIFIL contingent plans; and in case of a significant change of mandate, the Ministry of Defense, together with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, send a new request for participation in UNIFIL to the National Congress.