O impacto da guerra da Ucrânia na geopolítica da Antártica

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the possible impacts of the Ukrainian War on the balance of power between nations and how they could be motivating revisionist actions by the great powers on the occasion of the analysis of the Antarctic Treaty System scheduled for 2048. relevant because it deals with changes in a region belonging to the Brazilian strategic environment with potential impact on several national strategic centers such as agribusiness. It analyzes the conformation of the Antarctic Treaty System through the various treaties, agreements and regulatory institutions. It analyzes the Ukrainian War and prospects changes in the international system. Subsequently, it uses these possibilities in conjunction with Jeffrey McGee's The Future of Antarctica using the methodology of fuzzy cognitive maps, as a tool for analysis and decision support. It applies the method because it allows the representation of information diffusely connected to its objective, allowing the structuring of the problem and the analysis of alternatives. A questionnaire was set up with prospective scenarios and criteria for measuring possibilities for analysis and assessment of selected experts in geopolitics. The answers were used as inputs in the work analysis methodology. Finally, conclusions were drawn and ways to obtain and maintain the national goals were pointed out, as well as suggestions for future research or extension.