Influência de fatores contingenciais nos cancelamentos de restos a pagar não processados do poder executivo da administração pública federal

Abstract

The Brazilian State has experienced periods of ups and downs over the last 10 years with the emergence of contingent factors arising from a political-economic, regulatory and social-health context. In this environment, there are public organizations, which are institutions used as a means of implementing public policies and which carry out State activities. In order to understand the relationship between contingency factors in public institutions in Brazil, this study aims to analyze the possible influences of the 2015-2016 Crisis, Decree 9,428/2018 and the Covid-19 Pandemic on cancellations of unpaid balances processed by the Executive Branch of the Federal Public Administration in light of the Contingency Theory. Canceling unprocessed unpaid balances means frustration of credit and budget allocation, loss of opportunity for application in public policies, which translates into harm for society. The target population was 135 Military Organizations that are part of the Brazilian Navy, from 2014 to 2021. Contingency Theory was used as theoretical support for the use of the contingency variables of interest in this study. Using documentary and quantitative research, the study involved descriptive analyses, chi-square test and adjustment of a logistic regression model for panel data with the objective of evaluating the effect of contingent factors on the cancellation of these remaining payments. The results showed that statistically the 2015-2016 Crisis did not contribute to increasing the probability of cancellations of unprocessed unpaid balances in the Federal Public Administration, however, Decree 9,428/2018 and the Covid-19 Pandemic contributed to an increase in the probability cancellations of unprocessed unpaid balances. Therefore, this study concluded that the emergence of new contingent environmental factors, derived from a regulatory and social-sanitary context, may have an impact on cancellations of unprocessed unpaid balances in the Federal Public Administration in future financial years. Keywords: Cancellation of outstanding payments; contingent factors; public administration; logistic regression for panel data.