PENSÃO POR MORTE: Um Modelo de Contas Nocionais Aplicado às Pensões Militares das Forças Armadas

Abstract

The objective of this thesis was to investigate the impact on the actuarial result of the death pension system, as well as on the benefit itself, resulting from the modification of its costing plan with the use of the notional accounts system. The motivation was the deficit scenario of the social protection systems in Brazil, the insufficiency of the measures adopted in the reforms carried out since the Federal Constitution of 1988 to reverse this scenario, the positive results of the implementation of this system in countries such as Sweden, Italy, Latvia, Poland and Norway, and the need to look more closely at reforms for benefits where the notional accounts system can be applied, such as the survivor‟s pension benefit. The methodology used in the thesis was the single integrated case study with intrinsic and instrumental characteristics, based on a qualitative and quantitative approach. Based on a proposed model of notional accounts, a simulation was carried out, with the help of the R software, with data referring to the 3,942 military personnel who joined the Armed Forces in 2020 to identify the impact on the implicit social security debt and on the pension to be left to military‟s beneficiaries. It was observed that, both from the point of view of public spending and from the point of view of the amount received by the beneficiary, the results indicate a considerable reduction, mitigating the deficit in the Social Protection System of the Armed Forces‟ Military at the cost of the degradation of pensions to be granted. In addition, the pure notional accounts system would create differences, which currently do not exist, such as: the existence of distinct benefits left for men and women, being greater for men, and the existence of pensions of different values left by soldiers with identical careers. Additionally, the uncertainty regarding the value of the replacement rate, given the possible variation in the parameters adopted to define the benefit, is an issue inherent to the system of notional accounts. Finally, this thesis demonstrates that the system of notional accounts: is just one pillar of a system composed of, at least, three pillars, one being basic and universal, and the other financially capitalized; it gives rise to an adequate communication of the interested parties for its adoption to the target audience; and represents a gradual transition to the financial capitalization regime.