O uso da Lei de Newcomb-Benford para seleção de amostras de auditoria no setor público brasileiro

Abstract

The Internal Control Center of the Navy (CCIMAR) is the body responsible for auditing within the Brazilian Navy (MB). With the increasing volume of data generated, it has become essential for auditors to utilize new tools to support their work. In this context, Newcomb-Benford’s Law (NBL) has gained prominence as a tool capable of assisting auditors in decision-making. This law is considered a valuable resource in the audit planning phase, particularly for sample selection. Accordingly, this study aims to analyze the selection of audit samples using the tests prescribed by NBL on data related to payment orders for the procurement of food supplies across all Military Organizations (OM) of the Brazilian Navy and compare these results with a per capita consumption analysis of these supplies by OM to optimize sample selection. The research methodology is characterized by the hypothetico-deductive method, with a quantitative approach. As a research instrument, 25,789 payment orders issued in 2023 by 91 Executive Management Units were analyzed. Preliminary analyses, primary analyses, advanced analyses, and per capita analysis were conducted using R software and Microsoft Excel®. The study revealed a reduction of approximately 61% in the universe of potential audit samples when using only the NBL tests, and this percentage increased to 91% when per capita analysis was included. It was concluded that combining additional analyses with the application of NBL enhances the auditor's ability to se.