A importância de Taiwan para a estratégia de defesa marítima da China no século 21: uma análise à luz dos ensinamentos de Geoffrey Till e Ian Speller

Abstract

This study investigates the importance of Taiwan in China's maritime defense strategy in the 21st century. Based on the theories of Geoffrey Till and Ian Speller, the research analyzes how China utilizes its maritime power to protect its interests in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Through a detailed historical and geopolitical analysis, it demonstrates how the complex relationship between China and Taiwan, marked by colonization, wars, and political tensions, shapes contemporary Chinese maritime strategy. Taiwan's economic transformation and transition to democracy have strengthened its identity, making the island a strategic asset for China, which seeks its reunification. The modernization of the People's Liberation Army Navy and the construction of military installations in the South China Sea reflect China's determination to control vital maritime routes and project naval power in the region. By applying the theories of Till and Speller, one understands the importance of maritime power, sea combat operations, and conventional tactics such as layered defense and Anti-Access/Area Denial capabilities, as well as unconventional tactics like the "Cabbage Strategy" and Gray Zone tactics that China employs to reinforce its territorial claims and protect its maritime interests. Additionally, the maritime virtuous cycle, where naval capabilities and economic development, exemplified by the Belt and Road Initiative, are interdependent, is highlighted. The possession of Taiwan would significantly strengthen China's position in the Indo-Pacific and alter the balance of power in the region. This study contributes to a better understanding of power dynamics in the Pacific region, highlighting the implications of China's maritime strategy for regional and global security.