O dilema de segurança do mar do sul da China: uma análise à luz da estratégia Anti-Access/Area-Denial

Abstract

The aim of this research is to examine how the evolution of Chinese maritime strategy from the post-Cold War period to the present day, from the perspective of the Anti- Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) strategy, impacts maritime security in the South China Sea (SCS). The relevance of the study lies in the increasing importance of the SCS for regional security and global stability, due to its crucial navigation routes that support a significant portion of global trade and its rich reserves of natural resources. These factors make the SCS a strategic focal point for both economic prosperity and geopolitical influence, intensifying the stakes for regional and global actors involved in the area. To achieve this objective, the investigation relied on bibliographic and documentary sources, adopting a descriptive and analytical methodological approach, focusing on the description of the phenomenon in development. The study was based on the concepts of Alfred Thayer Mahan, Julian Corbett, and the Jeune École, as well as the influences of Admiral Sergei Gorshkov and Admiral Liu Huaqing in the formulation of Chinese maritime policy. Thus, the aim was to identify how China is implementing the Anti-Access/Area-Denial strategic concept in the SCS, by adopting an assertive approach to address regional security concerns, through a reorientation of its defense forces, considering its present capabilities, strategic objectives, and the potential outcomes of its military actions. The final considerations indicate that the militarization of the SCS and the continuous US military operations create a highly contested and dynamic environment, requiring effective strategies to manage China's rise and its implications for the International System (IS).