Aplicabilidade do modelo Swiss Cheese no gerencimento de riscos operacionais: Uma análise da evacuação de não-combatentes em Cabul, Afeganistão (2021)

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes the applicability of the Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) in Operational Risk Management (ORM) during the non-combatant evacuation in Kabul, Afghanistan, in 2021. The primary objective is to evaluate whether the SCM, originally utilized in the corporate sector, can be effectively adapted for joint military operations. The research seeks to answer the central question: "Is the SCM suitable for ORM in joint military operations, specifically in the context of the non-combatant evacuation in Kabul in 2021?". To achieve this objective, an exploratory study with a qualitative approach was conducted, utilizing bibliographic analysis and a case study method. The findings demonstrate that the SCM provides a framework for identifying and mitigating latent and active failures in military operations. However, inefficiencies were observed in the Kabul operation, primarily due to the lack of adequate equipment, insufficient personnel, inadequate planning, and the absence of an updated evacuation plan. The SCM can identify these risks by examining the different Layers of Defense, designed to capture and neutralize potential failures. These Layers of Defense could mitigate these risks through the implementation of technical barriers, such as surveillance equipment and perimeter control, as well as organizational barriers, such as proper personnel training and the existence of a well-communicated and updated evacuation plan. Thus, it can be inferred that the SCM proved to be suitable for understanding failures and applying mitigation techniques, enabling a proactive approach with a systematic structure for risk mitigation and improving operational efficiency in joint military operations.