Gestão de riscos nos acordos de offset: Principais riscos e estratégias de mitigação identificados na Marinha do Brasil

Abstract

ABSTRACT Risk management in offset agreements: Key risks and mitigation strategies identified in the Brazilian Navy This study investigates technological, industrial, and commercial compensation agreements, commonly known as offsets, with a focus on risk management within these agreements, targeting the Brazilian Navy. It is noted that the Force has nine active compensation agreements, which unfold into 50 projects, corresponding to a total credit value of approximately US$ 6.8 billion. Given the contract values and existing complexity, various risks are identified that have the potential to compromise the expected benefits and the execution of the involved projects. Additionally, a search conducted in the Institutional Repository of Scientific Production of the Brazilian Navy and the Integrated Library Network of the Navy did not identify any articles specifically addressing the risks associated with offset agreements and their respective mitigation actions. Therefore, this research is understood to contribute to reducing this knowledge gap within the MB. The main objective of this study is to identify the most significant risks associated with the implementation of these agreements in the Navy context, as well as the mitigation strategies that have been applied to manage these risks. The methodology adopted was qualitative, with a literature review on the subject, complemented by an interview with an Brazilian Navy Officer with expertise and direct involvement in compensation agreements. The results identified the following main risks: inadequate planning of the compensations to be negotiated, which may lead to issues in meeting the agreement requirements; resistance from the contracted company or country to offering the compensation agreement; lack of capability in the Brazilian industry to provide critical technologies; and delays in payments, either from the contractor or the supplier, which could compromise the execution of the compensation projects. The key mitigation strategies identified were to conduct more collaborative negotiations to persuade the company/country to accept a Compensation Agreement that brings "additionality," aiming for a win-win relationship; include in the bidding notices and processes of waiver or non-requirement of bidding, where compensation measures are demanded, the requirement for the contracted company to conduct risk assessment studies; and require financial guarantees from the supplier in the bidding document or equivalent instrument. For future studies, it is suggested to verify the effectiveness of Brazilian Navy risk management in offset agreements and to investigate the feasibility of a specific Risk Management Plan for these agreements, based on the results of this monograph.