Guerra civil da Síria: A importância da gestão de riscos como ferramenta de mitigação de danos colaterais

Abstract

The conflict in Syria, which began in 2011, is an extreme example of a civil war, involving a multiplicity of actors such as government forces, rebels, local militias, and terrorist groups, each with their own agenda. This work addresses how risk management could have mitigated these damages and how some actors could have taken advantage of opportunities amidst the conflict. The intervention of foreign powers, such as the United States and Russia, adds another layer of complexity. These external actors often support different factions, further complicating the situation. In this context, risk management becomes essential to minimize collateral damage and maximize strategic opportunities. Collateral damage, both direct and indirect, has a devastating impact on the civilian population, including the destruction of infrastructure and the loss of lives, which are inevitable in conflicts of this magnitude. The distinction between combatants and non- combatants is not always clear, complicating efforts to protect civilians. It is important to recognize the cultural and contextual differences between Brazil and Syria. This study offers a Western perspective on the events and consequences of the Syrian conflict, focusing on how risk management could influence the outcomes. The Syrian state, characterized by an authoritarian structure, contrasts with Brazil's democratic experience. These differences influence the perception and approach to risk management, as well as the analysis of events. Risk management in a civil war requires a careful approach, considering the complex identification of adversaries and the specificities of the conflict. This study analyzes how risk management could have changed the course of the war, both by internal and external actors, establishing a comparison between the stages of the risk management process and the humanitarian impacts observed in the Syrian war.