As guerras por procuração iranianas e suas relações com os Houthis entre 2016 e 2023

Abstract

The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate whether the proxy wars conducted by Iran, with an emphasis on the maritime attacks carried out by the Yemeni political- religious group Houthi between 2016 and 2023, align with the classic naval strategies of the Fleet in Being and the Jeune École, particularly concerning regional deterrence and sea denial. To achieve this purpose, the research design involved comparing the theoretical assumptions of the mentioned strategies with the observed reality of Iranian proxy wars, particularly regarding actions against maritime traffic. The research is justified by the importance of identifying the causes and implications of the belligerent actions of a non-state actor, influenced by Iran's operations in the so-called gray zone. Furthermore, the analysis proved relevant in examining Iran's strategy of projecting influence and involvement in regional conflicts through proxy wars, essential for understanding the maritime traffic attacks occurring in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait region. It is concluded that Iran's use of proxy wars, with an emphasis on actions in the maritime environment, partially adheres to classic naval strategies. The comparative analysis with the Fleet in Being indicated that Iran, as an inferior military power, preserves its capabilities by using allied proxies to influence conflicts, as well as means of deterrence and sea denial, demonstrated by the threat to maritime traffic posed by the Houthis. On the other hand, there is no actual naval force, which places adversaries at a disadvantage, as countermeasures against a fleet in being become ineffective. The investigation into adherence to the Jeune École found the greatest similarity in the economic impacts caused by a remodeled form of privateering, resulting in a deterrent effect characterized by disturbances to maritime transportation, especially during the 2023 Red Sea Crisis. Conversely, the research found that, unlike the Jeune École, the means employed by the Houthis were mostly not innovations but rather promoted sea denial through operations from the mainland.