Ofuscando os limites entre a Diplomacia e o Conflito Armado: Os Conflitos na Zona Cinza e seus reflexos para futuras políticas e estratégias da Marinha do Brasil

Abstract

The beginning of a new multipolarity in the 21st century brought the emergence of the socalled revisionist states, which began to use conflicts in the Gray Zone in the search for changing the status quo in their favor. Conflicts in the Gray Zone occur in the gap between the practices employed by diplomacy and the conventional actions of an armed conflict. They employ indirect tools that avoid justifications for retaliation through conventional conflict, thus remaining outside the limits of armed conflict against their competitors (or adversaries). Another peculiarity of these actions is their intention to obfuscate their real nature, aiming to hinder or prevent the identification of the threat and the attribution of responsibilities. Similarly, conflicts in the Gray Zone and Hybrid Warfare share several characteristics, the former, however, being limited to actions beyond armed conflict. The actions or tools used in the conflicts in the Gray Zone are peculiar and specific, being sometimes called Hybrid Threats. They may involve actions such as cyber attacks, information operations, use of regular and irregular forces, terrorism, environmental crimes, piracy, among others. In addition to being used in the military dimension, they explore other dimensions, such as human, economic, political and legal. Hybrid threats are also observed in the Brazilian Strategic Environment and can serve as tools for the competition in the Gray Zone against Brazil. Thus, it is essential to keep the Brazilian Armed Forces prepared to face them. Therefore, there is a need for the Brazilian Navy to identify the possible consequences of this phenomenon for its preparation and employment in a conflict scenario in the Gray Zone. The objective of this thesis is, consequently, to describe and analyze the conflicts in the Gray Zone and the main ways to oppose them, in order to deduce their consequences for future policies and strategies of the Brazilian Navy, formulating and justifying recommendations. The work is justified by contributing to a deeper understanding of contemporary aspects related to the 21st century conflicts, in this case, the conflicts in the Gray Zone. Actions of this nature employed by the People's Republic of China are analyzed because it is one of the most active actors in the conflicts of the Gray Zone and because a considerable part of its actions employ the maritime environment, of greater relevance for the Brazilian Navy. The study analyzes, as the main tools used by China: the construction of artificial islands; the employment of the “Little Blue Men”; the use of cyber threats; the New Chinese Silk Road; and the use of Chinese military forces in the Gray Zone. Exploratory and descriptive research is used and, at the end, through prescriptive research, recommendations are formulated, at the strategic level, for the Brazilian Navy. The study considers that the main reflection of the conflicts in the Gray Zone for future policies and strategies of the Brazilian Navy is the need to include the phenomenon in a more assertive way in the construction of naval policies and strategies and concludes by formulating eleven recommendations to the Brazilian Navy, which can help in future revisions of the Naval Policy and the Navy Strategic Plan